Note on Undecideds
The Senate results require a bit of clarification. For the Senate match-ups, they were asked who they would vote for…. “last name” or “last name”.
The purpose was to gauge what I call “True” or “Core” support. This factors in any incumbency advantage for name recognition and captures those folks who REALLY support that individual candidate. But forces those who – in the end – will only support the party (not the man/woman, but the party) to end up as undecided. i.e. “soft support” falls into undecided.
Why do this? Well….it is the political scientist in me….I plan to take these numbers and estimate what support would be in a “coattail free election” by counting every “undecided” who is a partisan or partisan leaner as supporting that party’s candidate and splitting the pure independent undecideds. I will compare this to the ACTUAL election totals after 11/4 and be able to estimate coattail effect. I am especially keen to do this in SC where there has been very little presidential or senate campaigning (relatively….compared to, say, NC on both counts).
In SC, Graham’s support was at 63.7% and Conley’s was at 36.3% using the support rubric described above. This is in line with other polling. The actual election numbers will likely have a good deal more votes for Conley. Since I used the method I did to measure existing "core" support, I'll be able to measure a coattail effect by comparing these numbers to the final vote totals. I couldn't have done this had I not chosen the quirky methodology that I did.
Similarly, in NC, using the support rubric described above, our numbers show Dole’s support at 53% and Hagen’s support at 47%. Again, since I used the method I did to measure existing "core" support, I'll be able to measure a coattail effect by comparing these numbers to the final vote totals. While in SC I can measure the coattail effect of Obama absent a rigorous campaign, in NC, the effect is likely to be smaller – due to how hotly contested the election is….creating more “core” supporters – BUT the hotly contested nature of the election has made it so close that the Obama coattail may (MAY) tip the election. Again….if I hadn’t used the quirky methodology I did…I wouldn’t be able to see the impact of coattail versus core and wouldn’t know if the campaign or coattail effect was the final tipping point (IF the election tips).
I know that journalists and activists don’t care about the post-election analysis that geeky political scientists are keen to do so I apologize for the confusion. I REALLY should have made it clear.
Thanks,
Scott H. Huffmon, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Political Science
Director, Social & Behavioral Research Lab
Phone: (803) 323-4669
Fax: (803) 323-2568